It is necessary that at least three million additional jobs (if not more) are created every year to ensure that there isn't an increase in the stock of unemployed, says Mahesh Vyas.
The labour participation rate tells us how many of the working age population are willing to be employed. If this proportion keeps falling as it evidently is, it does not bode well for India's growth story. It renders all stories of a revival in the economy as a myth, warns Mahesh Vyas.
Companies, so far, were constrained by the provisions of Articles 370 and 35A, which restricted the purchase of land and hiring manpower.
Governments seem to be a lot more wary of imposing a draconian lockdown this time. Some lessons seem to have been learned. So, it may be fair to assume that these lockdowns will do less harm. But they will hurt the recovery process, which is still incomplete, warns Mahesh Vyas.
Neither the CAA nor the proposed NRC are important enough to stake the well-being of so many or stake economic growth. Getting growth back on track is more important, notes Mahesh Vyas.
The labour force fell from 43.97 crore in 2016-17 to 42.61 crore in 2017-18
The steady rise through most of July implies a greater demand for jobs. And most of this demand is being met, says Mahesh Vyas.
'By November 2020, men recovered most of their lost jobs, but women were less fortunate: 49 per cent of the job losses by November were of women.' 'The recovery has benefited all, but it benefited women less than it did men,' notes Mahesh Vyas.
'The jobs that are being created now are the delivery boy jobs which are of extremely poor quality, or contractual jobs where you hire a person on a per piece basis.'
Hopefully, the small recovery in the labour force and employment seen in the September-December 2017 wave will gather momentum in the coming waves, says Mahesh Vyas.The challenge, says Mahesh Vyas, is to find the corresponding jobs for these aspirants.
Militant labour policies compounded a poor security environment for capital in West Bengal and encouraged the business community to relocate. constraining the private sector's right to hire freely could well be the coup de grace. As with Calcutta/Kolkata, it will probably take a decade for Gurgaon/Gurugram to feel the difference, says Kanika Datta.
There were 86 million salaried jobs in India during 2019-2020. In August 2020, their count was down to 65 million. The deficit of 21 million jobs is the biggest among all types of employment, points out Mahesh Vyas.
The Economic Survey will remain a documentation of the government's resolve to not recognise the severe stress on the labour markets and on the livelihoods of Indian households arising out of the pandemic and the consequent lockdown, observes Mahesh Vyas.
The biggest worry is not the shrinking of the labour market, but the collapse of good jobs.
There have been reports that nearly three-fourths of the millions of engineers and B-school graduates are simply not employable at all, speaking volumes about the quality of both the academics as well as the admission process in the country's education systems.
It is important to increase employment in general. It is even better to increase good quality jobs. Strategically, it is important to move people from farms to factories to improve overall labour productivity. It is important to improve job opportunities for women, for urbanites and for the educated. The Budget does not contain ideas to do any of this, points out Mahesh Vyas.
Labour seems to have found employment as maids, cooks, gardeners, security guards and the like -- a transition that could be described as from farms to the kitchen sink, instead of farms to factories, observes Mahesh Vyas.
More people felt optimistic about their economic condition in November than in the same month a year ago, says Mahesh Vyas.
The independent institute advising the PM on jobs seems to have missed the point that the challenge is to create net additional jobs, says Mahesh Vyas.
Nearly 31 million Indians are unemployed and looking for jobs. While economic growth has been humming along, the pace of job creation has been poor. A revealing excerpt from Dev Kar's India: Still A Shackled Giant.
'Two consecutive quarters of negative growth are the technical definition of an economic recession, and for the first time in this generation's memory, we may be staring at one,' observes Aakar Patel.
It keeps getting harder every day for the government to drive its narrative that ample jobs are being created. They sound increasingly silly as they try to defend the indefensible, says Mahesh Vyas.
After 24 months of slowdown beginning in January 2018 before the pandemic and then 18 months of collapse since January 2020, we have become the world's worst performing economy, observes Aakar Patel.
'It could take 12 months or more for hiring to get back on track.' 'New opportunities would come up and there will be demand for skillsets that can help dealing with the current situation.'
'Under-employment continues to be a very big problem.' 'What we see today is many youth who would have accepted any kind of job are not willing to accept any job.' 'They are ready to wait for a better job, one that justifies their educational qualification. 'This is one of the reasons why unemployment has risen.'
He attacked the dispensation over issues such as the state of the economy, the situation in Kashmir, the National Register of Citizens in Assam and action by probe agencies against opposition leaders.
'The cost of the lockdown so far is the loss of about 11 million jobs.' 'It is important that a fresh lockdown does not make this worse,' asserts Mahesh Vyas.
He said the 'toxic combination of deep distrust, pervasive fear and a sense of hopelessness in our society' is stifling economic activity and growth.
Lok Sabha elections result of 2019 tells us the Modi wave has only consolidated, instead of waning.
'The situation is quite terrifying as you have no job creation and there will be loss of jobs.'
While naysayers say the economy is on a downward spiral, optimists point out that India has experienced a shift of gears in the realm of policies, thanks to several initiatives of the Narendra Modi government, says Ashok K Lahiri.
We present our alphabet of 2020, pulling in everything you'll remember about this year we'd rather forget.
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